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土地利用/覆被和气候变化对万泉河上游流域径流的影响

Impacts of land-use/land-cover and climate change on runoff in the upper reaches of the Wanquan River Basin

  • 摘要: 为探究万泉河流域径流对土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)和气候变化的响应,通过建立万泉河上游流域的SWAT模型,设置了不同情景,定量分析了LUCC和气候变化对径流的影响.结果表明,SWAT模型在万泉河上游流域的适用性较好,率定期和验证期的相关系数(R2)以及纳什效率系数(Ens)均大于0.80.设置极端土地利用/覆被情景,将所有人工林转化为耕地、耕地转化为天然林、人工林转化为天然林,月均径流量的变化幅度分别是13.66%、-2.46%和-9.74%,这表明耕地的产流能力最强,其次是人工林,最后为天然林.所设置的不同气候情景表明,月均径流量变化与降雨量成正比,与气温成反比.设置土地利用/覆被和气候综合情景,对比1990年,2018年LUCC使月均径流量增加了1.32%;2006—2018年气候变化使月均径流量增加了8.97%;相比LUCC,气候变化是引起流域径流变化的主要因素.

     

    Abstract: In the report, in order to investigate the response of the runoff of Wanquan River to land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change, the SWAT model was constructed, the different scenarios were set, the effects of LUCC and climate change on the runoff were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the model has a good applicability for the simulation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Wanquan River Basin, the correlation coefficient (R2) and Nash efficiency coefficient (Ens) of the validation period are both greater than 0.80. When the different land-use/land-cover scenarios were set, all artificial forest was converted to farmland, farmland was converted to natural forest, artificial forest was converted to natural forest, and the changes of monthly average runoff was 13.66%, -2.46%, and -9.74%, respectively, which suggested that the contribution of different land-use/land-cover to the increase of runoff is the highest, which is followed by farmlands, artificial forest, and natural forest. The analysis results from the different climate scenarios indicated that the change trend of monthly average runoff is directly proportional to the change of rainfall, however, which is inversely proportional to the change of temperature. The simulation of land-use/land-cover and climate showed that compared with that in 1990, the change of monthly average runoff brought by LUCC in 2018 increases by 1.32%; from 2006 to 2018, the change of average monthly runoff brought by the change of climate increases by 8.97%. Compared to the LUCC, the climate change is the main factor causing runoff changes.

     

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