概率二分模式下随机传染病模型的平稳性与控制研究
Stability and control of stochastic infectious disease model under probability dichotomy model
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摘要: 提出了具有概率分流模式下的随机传染病模型,考察隔离个体诊断率(也包括疫苗功效)和环境扰动(噪声)的生物功效.首先,证明了随机模型正解的存在性和唯一性,然后确立了疾病灭绝和持续存在的充分条件.当噪声强度固定和疫苗效力增加时,
会变大并且灭绝时间会呈现负指数衰减.数值结果表明噪声的引入可以加快疾病的灭绝,从而达到对疾病的最优控制,其不仅能有效地降低感染人数,而且能加快疾病的灭绝. Abstract: In the report, a stochastic infectious model with probability shunting was constructed, and the effects of the diagnostic rate of isolated individuals (vaccine efficacy) and the fluctuation environment (noise) on disease transmission and control were investigated. The existence and uniqueness of the solution were proved, and the sufficient condition for the extinction and persistence of the disease were validated. If the noise is fixed and the vaccine efficacy increases, becomes bigger and the extinction time demonstrates a negative exponential decay. The numeric results indicated that the noise can accelerate the extinction of the disease and achieve the stochastic optimal control, which not only reduce effectively the number of infected people, but also accelerate the disease extinction.
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