Abstract:
In the report, based on the typhoon track data from 1960 to 2019 years on the southeast coastal areas of China and the wind field parameter model, the wind speed simulation for different types of tracks was performed, on which the return period wind speed estimation was obtained, and the hazard differences for different classes of typhoon tracks were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The typhoon tracks in the southeastern coastal areas mainly contain three classes, corresponding to northwest straight typhoons (i.e., northwest-travel typhoons and far northwest-travel typhoons) and northeast turning typhoons. Among them,the number of northwest straight typhoons is the largest and the overall trend is declining. Moreover,the northeast-turning typhoons account for 1/3, showing an upward trend in the past 20 years. The number of such typhoons has increased in El Nino years. (2) There is a significant difference in coverage of influence for different typhoon tracks. Among them, northeast-turning typhoons have a larger coverage of influence compared with northwest-straight typhoons. (3) The extremum wind speed of far northwest-travel typhoons is the highest, while northwest-travel typhoons are the lowest. The results showed that the far northwest-travel typhoons have the largest hazard, showing a decrease in a step-like manner from east to west. Our findings provide a new reference for wind resistance design and disaster prevention and mitigation in the southeast coastal area.