Abstract: In the report， in order to explore the effects of the land use simulation on ecosystem carbon stocks under the different development orientations in Nanping and elucidate the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of carbon stocks and future evolution trends， InVEST model and PLUS model were coupled to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and carbon stocks in Nanping from 2005 to 2020， and the changes of the land use and carbon stocks in 2035 were predicted from three scenarios of natural development， arable land protection， and ecological priority. The results indicated that the area of forest land， grassland， and arable land in Nanping City generally show a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2020， the area of waters increases slightly， and the area of construction land increases rapidly， which is due to the rapid expansion of construction land encroaching and squeezing a large amount of urban ecological land. The carbon stock in Nanping City shows an overall decreasing trend in 15 years， with a cumulative loss of 1.61 × 10⁶ t. Under the natural development and cropland protection scenarios， the carbon stock in Nanping City in 2035 are predicted to lose 1.50 × 10⁶ t and 3.62 × 10⁶ t， respectively， compared with that in 2020. Whereas under the ecological priority scenario， the regional carbon stock in 2035 rose by 38，825.37 t compared with that in 2020 The main factor causing the change in carbon stock under the three scenarios is the change of the land use type， the more shift of ecological land such as the forest land and grassland to the construction land and cultivated land is the core factor leading to the decrease of carbon stock. The scientific and effective ecological environment management can effectively alleviate the problem of declining carbon stocks， improve the level of regional carbon stocks， and accelerate the implementation of the double carbon target.