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海南岛新旧气候态下气候的差异及其影响

Climate difference between new and old climate state in Hainan island and it′s influence

  • 摘要: 利用1966—2022海南岛18个国家气象观测站的气温、降水和日照观测数据,对比了新气候态(1991—2020年)和旧气候态(1981—2010年)下海南岛的气温、降水及日照时数的差异特征,并分析了气候态更替对气候业务的影响.结果表明:(1)新气候态下海南岛各地较旧气候态偏暖,年平均气温增幅呈北半部高南半部低的空间分布,年平均最低/最高气温也偏高,其中平均最低气温的增幅最大,各月气温一致性偏高,不同阈值高温日数均增多;(2)新气候态下大部分地区的气候较旧气候态下的气候偏湿,新旧气候态差异呈月际非均一性和空间不一致性特征,冬季和夏季偏湿,夏季增湿最显著,春季和秋季偏干,新气候态下海南岛的暴雨、大暴雨及以上等级的极端降水发生概率增加;(3)新气候态的年日照时数总体少于旧气候态的年日照时数,且各月变化分布不均匀;(4)气候态更替对海南岛气候影响评价、气候预测业务以及服务都造成一定影响,尤其对于差异较大的地区和月份.

     

    Abstract: In the report, the temperature, precipitation and sunshine observation data of Hainan island 19 national meteorological observation stations during 1966-2022 were used to analyze and compare the different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration between the new climate state (1991-2020) and the old climate state (1981-2010) in Hainan island, and the influences of climate state replacement on climate operations were also analyzed. The results showed that (1) The climate in new climate state is warmer than that in old climate state all over Hainan island, the warming amplitude of annual mean temperature is higher in the northern half than that in the southern half, the annual mean minimum and mean maximum temperature are both higher too, and the average minimum temperature increases mostly. The temperature is consistently higher in each month. High temperature days of different thresholds both increases; (2) The climate in new climate state is wetter than that in old climate state in most areas, the difference between new climate state and old climate state is characterized by monthly inhomogeneity and spatial inconsistency, which are wetter in winter and summer, the increase of humidification is most significant in summer, and which are drier in spring and autumn. Under the new climate state, the occurrence probabilities of rainstorm, heavy rainstorm and above grade extreme precipitation increase in Hainan island; (3) The annual average sunshine duration of the new climate state is generally less than that of the old climate state, the monthly distribution is inhomogeneous; (4) The climate state replacement has certain influence on climatic impact assessment, climate prediction operations, and climate service in Hainan island, especially for the regions and months with large difference between the new climate state and old climate state.

     

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