Abstract: To forecast the energy demands and carbon emission of transportation in Hainan Province, LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System), which were developed by U.S.A and Sweden, and MATLAB, were used as the tools to analyze the situation of energy demands and carbon emission of transportation industry in Hainan Province from 2005 to 2014, and the LEAP model of Hainan Province was constructed. Regression analysis was performed to forecast the energy demands and carbon emission of transportation in Hainan Province. Three scenario, baseline, structure, and policy, were set, the energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions from 2015—2035 were estimated. The results showed that the energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in 2035 would be declined under the energy-saving and low-carbon scenario. Compared with baseline scenario，the energy demand in the structure scenario would be reduced by 11.45%, and the emissions of carbon dioxide reduced by 15.01%. Compared with baseline scenario，the energy demand under the policy scenario would be reduced by 11.08%, and the emissions of carbon dioxide reduced by 12.24%. Therefore, adjusting the proportion of transportation industries and decreasing the energy intensity from the perspective of policy analysis are helpful for the realization of energy-saving and emission-reduction.