Abstract:
In the report, the susceptible population was divided into ordinary susceptible population
S and conscious susceptible population
SI and a delayed epidemic model with media coverage
SSIIR was established. Based on the basic regeneration number of the model, the existence and stability of its equilibrium point were demonstrated; The sufficient condition of disease persistence was proved, and the local sensitivity analysis of parameters was performed. Finally, numerical simulation was carried out. The results showed that there is a critical value τ
0 for the time lag of media reports τ. When τ<τ
0, the balance point of endemic disease remains stable. When τ>τ
0, Hopf bifurcations and bifurcated periodic solutions begin to appear. The bigger the
λ, the conversion rate from population
S to population
SI, the faster the disease will be controlled. The increase of
K, the cognitive bias of these two populations, will be detrimental to the control of the disease. Therefore, the media should try their best to convey accurate and timely information to the public, so as to control the spread of disease as soon as possible.