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  • 摘要: 热带气旋( “飓风”或“台风”)是全球最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,每年导致数百人死亡,并造成数百亿元人民币的经济损失。现有数据表明,全球气候变化使得热带气旋的移速减缓,但由热带气旋引发的降雨量与移速呈现反比关系;此外,虽然全球热带气旋总数呈下降趋势,但4~5级飓风(即超强台风)活动频率整体上升。2017年大西洋飓风季造成美国1 250亿美元的经济损失;2025年美国德克萨斯州飓风引发强降雨,导致逾130人丧生。海南地处台风生成及移动的核心路径,是中国受台风影响最频繁的地区之一。2014年超强台风“威马逊”登陆文昌市,成为有气象记录以来登陆中国的最强台风(登陆强度70 m·s−1),海南岛因灾死亡或失踪24人,直接经济损失达110亿元人民币。2024年,超强台风“摩羯”以仅次于超强台风“威马逊”的强度(登陆强度62 m·s−1),同样登陆文昌市,其破坏力却远超超强台风“威马逊”,造成海南岛死亡4人,直接经济损失超600亿元人民币。  超强台风“摩羯”(国际编号:2411)于2024年9月1日在菲律宾以东洋面生成,6日在文昌市翁田镇沿海登陆(中心最低气压915 hPa),后穿过海口市和澄迈县等地移入琼州海峡,随后移入北部湾海面。海南岛12级及以上风圈覆盖区域受影响超9 h,远超2014年超强台风“威马逊”的3 h,文昌测得的最低气压和最强风速均突破中国所有台风过程陆地实测值。4~8日,海南岛普降暴雨到大暴雨,最大降水量为乐东县尖峰镇691.2 mm,文昌市降水量突破当地历史9月的日最大降雨量极值。海口市转移群众超过10万人,倒塌房屋约400间,房屋损坏超过3万间,农作物受灾面积达570 km2,直接经济损失超过26亿元人民币;文昌市房屋受损达2.5万余间,农作物受灾面积约180 km2,绝收面积高达110 km2,经济损失约达327亿元。近年来海南省通过修订工程建设与设施设备使用规范,并完善灾前应急预案,显著提升了台风防御能力,使得人员伤亡数量明显下降。但随着沿海地区人口与经济持续增长,超强台风所带来的风险不断攀升,造成的经济损失也愈发难以承受。  在世界范围内,从气象角度的热带气旋生成发展基础理论及预报研究已成体系,相关研究成果在降低热带气旋灾害上发挥了重要作用,但超强台风登陆的偶发性和区域差异显著等特征,使得其强大动力对地表影响研究相对匮乏,尚缺乏充分的数据和经验来系统揭示其致灾规律,对于其适应性及防灾减灾策略还未形成成熟的解决方案。作为重大灾害评估及科学研究的基本手段,系统的现场调研至关重要。超强台风“摩羯”过境海南岛后,海南大学土木建筑工程学院组织近百名师生,成立多学科交叉的台风灾害调研团队,赴受灾区域开展实地调研工作,主体调研历时十余日。调研范围覆盖超强台风“摩羯”10~17级风圈区域,以受灾明显的9类建构筑物(建筑围护结构、高层建筑、高耸结构/钢结构、临时建筑、农业温室建筑、道路基础设施、光伏结构、电力通信设施和风力发电系统)以及海岸侵蚀和树木倒伏状况为调研对象,涉及调研单体(场地)超1 000个(处)。调研采用“空−天−地”多源数据采集方法,通过实地走访了解建构筑物背景信息,记录结构损伤形态与程度,结合手持激光测距仪和加速度传感器等设备量化破坏参数;利用卫星遥感与无人机航拍数据分析海岸侵蚀及树木倒伏情况;采用问卷调查与主观感知量化高层建筑风致振动舒适度。数据处理上,依据功能和区位分布等特征对调研对象进行分类,并对灾害损失情况进行等级划分,从而总结灾害损伤规律,同时选取典型单体对象,深入分析灾损成因。调研工作得到了海南省气象局、海南省住房和城乡建设厅、海南省交通运输厅、海南省应急管理厅、海南省自然资源和规划厅等单位的支持和指导。临高县东英镇人民政府、定安县水冲坡村、耕读山房和美鳌村村委会等单位在实地考察和信息收集方面提供了大量帮助。海南信义矿业有限公司、海南浙联钢构集团有限公司、海南海控中能建工程有限公司、文昌鲁能希尔顿酒店、海南智普农业科技发展有限公司和海南雅邦集成房屋有限公司等企业也给予了积极配合与支持。  调研结果显示,海口市和文昌市多处气象站录得的风压超建筑设计荷载标准,部分地区因地形效应出现风速增强现象,如海口湾附近高层建筑群因狭管效应导致局地风速增幅达20%~30%,迎风面建筑围护结构承受的动态风压峰值超过5 kPa(超出常规建筑设计荷载标准近50%);现有建筑围护结构、临时建筑、电力设施和农业温室建筑抗超强台风能力不足,针对台风灾害易损区域,亟需修订相关建设规范;文昌市砂质海岸线整体呈现米级后退,需高度重视并制定长期保护方案;强降雨和树木倒伏等次生灾害严重影响公路和城市道路使用寿命,需结合排水系统和行道树设计等提高韧性;树木倒伏状况与其种类、所处地理位置及周边建筑环境都有直接关系,合理的空间布局能降低灾害损失。超强台风“摩羯”的防灾救灾工作再一次证明,通讯、交通和水电的保障是应急处置的核心,对于降低灾害损失、减少人员伤亡具有关键作用,要加强相关标准建设以及新防灾减灾技术的应用。超强台风的作用区域及破坏程度与其所处的地理位置、地形和土地利用等因素直接关联,具有显著地域性。鉴于有记录以来登陆中国的2次最强台风均在文昌市登陆,并给海南岛造成了巨大的经济损失,建议在海南岛成立台风防灾减灾研究中心,系统研究海南岛台风灾害发生规律、防灾避灾减灾与灾后恢复重建等方面的创新技术、法律法规及政策措施,开展国际交流与合作,服务政府科学决策。

     

    Abstract: Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes or typhoons) are among the most destructive natural disasters globally, causing hundreds of fatalities and tens of billions of RMB in economic losses annually. Existing data indicate that global climate change has slowed the translation speed of tropical cyclones, and an inverse relationship exists between translation speed and cyclone-induced rainfall. Furthermore, while the global total number of tropical cyclones shows a declining trend, the frequency of Category 4~5 hurricanes (i.e., super typhoons) has exhibited an overall increase. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season caused economic losses of 125 billion in the United States; in 2025, a hurricane in Texas, USA, triggered heavy rainfall, resulting in over 130 fatalities. Hainan is located along the core generation and movement path of typhoons, making it one of the regions in China most frequently affected by these storms. In 2014, Super Typhoon "Rammasun" made landfall in Wenchang, Hainan, becoming the strongest typhoon on record to strike China (landfall intensity 70  m·s−1). It caused 24 deaths or missing persons on Hainan Island and direct economic losses of 11 billion RMB. In 2024, Super Typhoon "Yagi", with a landfall intensity second only to "Rammasun" (62  m·s−1), similarly made landfall in Wenchang, Hainan. However, its destructive impact far exceeded that of "Rammasun", causing 4 deaths and direct economic losses exceeding 60 billion RMB on Hainan Island.Super Typhoon "Yagi" (international designation: 2411) formed over the ocean east of the Philippines on September 1, 2024, and made landfall along the coast of Wengtian Town, Wenchang City on September 6 (minimum central pressure 915 hPa). It then crossed Haikou and Chengmai before moving into the Qiongzhou Strait and subsequently entering the Beibu Gulf. The area on Hainan Island covered by force 12 and above winds was affected for over 9 hours, far exceeding the 3 hours during Super Typhoon "Rammasun" in 2014. The minimum pressure and maximum wind speed recorded in Wenchang both broke all previous land-based observational records for typhoons in China. From September 4 to 8, Hainan Island experienced widespread heavy to torrential rain, with a maximum accumulated rainfall of 691.2 mm at Jianfeng Town, Ledong County. Wenchang's precipitation broke its historical daily maximum rainfall record for September. In Haikou City, more than 100,000 people were evacuated, about 400 houses collapsed, over 30,000 houses were damaged, the crop-affected area reached 570 km2, and direct economic losses exceeded 2.6 billion RMB. In Wenchang City, more than 25,000 houses were damaged, the crop-affected area was about 180 km2 (with 110 km2 of total crop failure), and economic losses amounted to approximately 32.7 billion RMB. In recent years, Hainan Province has significantly improved its typhoon defense capabilities by revising engineering construction and equipment-use standards and refining pre-disaster emergency plans, leading to a notable reduction in casualties. However, with continued population and economic growth in coastal areas, the risks posed by super typhoons continue to rise, and the resulting economic losses are becoming increasingly difficult to bear.Worldwide, foundational theories and forecasting research on the generation and development of tropical cyclones from a meteorological perspective have been well-established, and related findings have played a significant role in reducing tropical cyclone disasters. However, the occasional occurrence of landfalling super typhoons and their marked regional variability have resulted in relatively limited research on their powerful dynamic impacts on the ground. There is still a lack of sufficient data and experience to systematically reveal their disaster-causing mechanisms, and mature solutions for adaptation and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies have yet to be formed. As a fundamental means for major disaster assessment and scientific research, systematic field investigations are crucial. Following the passage of Super Typhoon “Yagi” across Hainan in 2024, the school of Civil Engineering and Architecture of Hainan University organized an interdisciplinary typhoon disaster investigation team composed of nearly one hundred faculty and students. The team conducted field surveys in the affected areas for over ten days. The survey covered regions within the force 10–17 wind circles of Super Typhoon “Yagi” and focused on nine categories of buildings and structures that showed obvious damage (building envelopes, high-rise buildings, tall/steel structures, temporary buildings, agricultural greenhouse buildings, road infrastructure, photovoltaic structures, power and communication facilities, wind power generation systems), as well as coastal erosion and treefall conditions. More than 1,000 individual structures/sites were surveyed. A multi-source “air-space-ground” data acquisition approach was adopted: field studies were carried out to collect background information and record structural damage patterns and severity; handheld laser rangefinders and accelerometers were used to quantify damage parameters; satellite remote sensing and UAV aerial imagery were employed to analyze coastal erosion and treefall; questionnaire surveys and subjective perception assessments were applied to quantify wind-induced vibration comfort in high-rise buildings. For data processing, most surveyed objects were classified according to function, location distribution, and other characteristics, and disaster losses were graded to summarize damage patterns. Representative cases were selected for in-depth analysis of disaster causes. The investigation received support and guidance from the Hainan Meteorological Service, Hainan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Hainan Provincial Department of Transportation, Hainan Provincial Department of Emergency Management, and Hainan Provincial Department of Natural Resources and Planning. Substantial assistance during field visits and data collection was provided by the People’s Government of Dongying Town in Lingao County, Shuichongpo Village in Ding’an County, Gengdushanfang, and the Mei’ao Village Committee. Enterprises including Hainan Xinyi Mining Co., Ltd., Hainan Zhelian Steel Structure Group Co., Ltd., Hainan HNA-Energy China Engineering Co., Ltd. (or: Hainan HNA-China Energy Engineering Co., Ltd.), Wenchang Luneng Hilton Hotel, Hainan Zhipu Agricultural Technology Development Co., Ltd., and Hainan Yabang Integrated Housing Co., Ltd. also offered active cooperation and support.The investigation results show that many meteorological stations recorded wind pressures exceeding the design load standards for buildings, and wind-speed amplification due to topographic effects was observed in some areas. For instance, the high-rise building cluster near Haikou Bay experienced a local wind-speed increase of 20%–30% due to the Venturi effect; the peak dynamic wind pressure on windward building envelopes exceeded 5 kPa (nearly 50% above the design load for conventional buildings). Existing building envelopes, temporary structures, power facilities, and agricultural greenhouse buildings exhibited insufficient resistance to super typhoons, indicating an urgent need to revise relevant construction codes in typhoon-prone regions. The sandy coastline in Wenchang showed shoreline retreat on the order of meters, necessitating heightened attention and the formulation of long-term protection strategies. Secondary hazards such as heavy rainfall and treefall severely impacted the service life of highways and urban roads; resilience should be enhanced through improved drainage systems and roadside tree planning. Treefall patterns were directly related to geographic location, surrounding built environment, and tree species; rational spatial planning can help reduce disaster losses. The disaster prevention and emergency response to Super Typhoon “Yagi” once again demonstrated that securing communications, transportation, and water/power supply is central to emergency management and plays a key role in reducing losses and casualties. It is therefore essential to strengthen relevant standards and promote the application of new disaster prevention and mitigation technologies in these sectors. The impact area and damage severity of super typhoons are directly linked to geographical location, topography, land use and other factors, exhibiting marked regional characteristics. Given that the two strongest typhoons on record to strike China both made landfall in Wenchang, Hainan, causing enormous economic losses to Hainan Island, it is recommended to establish a Typhoon Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Research Center on Hainan Island. Such a center would systematically investigate the occurrence patterns of typhoon disasters, innovative technologies for disaster prevention, avoidance, mitigation and post-disaster recovery, as well as related laws, regulations and policy measures, while fostering international exchange and cooperation to support scientific decision-making by the government.

     

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